Determination of Nitrogen Application Ratio and Sowing Time for Improving the Future Yield of Double-Harvest Rice in Nanchang Based on the DSSAT-CERES-Rice Model

Climate change is a very serious threat to the agricultural sector and potentially brings new problems sustainability of production systems. This paper aims know how improve crop yield by changing nitrogen application ratio sowing time under future climate conditions based on CERES-Rice model. The model was calibrated validated with three-year field experiment (2018–2020), which coupled four N rates (50, 100, 150, 200 kg/ha) three different ratios (B:T:S = 3:1:0; B:T:S 5:3:2; 6:3:1). results showed that had better simulation effect phenophase (n-RMSE < 15%, d > 0.9 R2 0.978) 10%, 0.910) double-harvest rice. used evaluate growth period rice RCP4.5 scenario revealed yields in Nanchang are lower than those experimental years, especially for early Adjusting can certain extent, 5:3:2 has best effect. In 2021–2035, be obtained when date about 15 days earlier late 10 year. From 2035 2050, will advanced days, total higher. 2050–2070, may reach delayed 10–15 days. Therefore, reasonably regime as possible adaptive strategy cope reduction scenarios.